Overexpect cycle


The cycle of overexpectation is a tool used to represent in a graphical and summarized way the evolution that a new technology follows from its launch to its maturation phase.

The term was invented by Gartner Inc., a company dedicated to ICT research and consulting. To represent this curve, Gartner uses a chart called Hype Cycle in English, to see that when a new technology is launched, there is an oversized enthusiasm and, immediately afterwards, a wave of disappointment.

In what phases is the cycle of overexpecting divided?

The cycle of overexpecting is divided into the following phases:

  • Launch: Technological innovation lands on the market and, thanks to its potential, and the promotion given by its creators through online and offline channels, reaches a target audience.
  • Peak of oversized expectations: The media are the protagonists of this phase. They raise expectations for users by exaggerating the benefits.
  • Abyss of disillusionment: The media forget about the project, users, disappointed by not getting what was promised, question the technology.
  • Consolidation ramp: It is the moment when technologies that have a future make a difference. It is the moment in which a second version is created improving what has not gone well in the first. It is the moment when you learn from failure and try again with much more confidence. Market adoption is still less than 5%.
  • Productivity plateau: The product has been assimilated and is already in its maturation phase. Versions are improved and variations are included, product families are created, and their price becomes more affordable to reach a larger audience, although this will depend on whether the technology in question is specific or can be widely applied. At this point, the market assimilation will be approximately 20-30%.

With the theory of the cycle of overexpectation, in addition to foreseeing the phases that a new technology will go through, we will know which ones survive the market and which ones remain by the wayside.

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